Calculating odds with probability theory

When looking at sports betting from a mathematical perspective, one interesting question is where does probability theory come in when calculating odds? And can it help a bookmaker increase their chances of making a profit? I’m going to run through a simple approach to setting odds with an appreciation for the stochastic nature of sports. This content isn’t backed by any real experience of what goes on behind the scenes at bookmakers but it’s an attempt at a sensible approach to calculating odds using probability theory. Read more